May 2, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — May 2, 2026 — Neutral · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 48.1/100 • BTC:

$78,341

• ETH:

$2,304

• SOL:

$83.89

• GOLD:

$4,612

SPY: $720.65 (+1.3%) QQQ: $674.15 (+1.9%) VIX: 17.0 (+0.6%) TLT: $85.61 (-0.1%) DXY: 98.2 (+0.1%) OIL: $102.5 (-2.4%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.14T (YoY -3.03%) US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 283bps CALM (5d: -3bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 30Y Treasury: +2.35σ ▲ Jobless Claims: -2.17σ ▼ 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +2.03σ ▼ 10Y Treasury: +1.92σ ▼ 2Y Treasury: +1.67σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ NVDA: +7.8% ▲ ETH: +0.9% ▲ BTC: +0.7% ▲ SOL: +0.5%

TOP MOVERS

▲ SLV $68.29 (+5.3%) ▲ EWY $162 (+5.2%) ▼ BRENT $109 (-4.5%) ▲ TKMS $86.90 (+3.6%) ▲ SOXX $466 (+3.5%) ▼ WLFI $0.05330 (-3.5%) ▼ TRUMP $2.27 (-2.2%) — Trump’s Iran war leaves US with sharpest fuel shock in G7 ▲ DASH $37.76 (+1.7%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 0.5/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds — Oil: $100 (>$95) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — May 2, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on momentum despite geopolitical shocks as markets compartmentalize energy disruptions while crypto rallies on institutional adoption. Regime transition signals emerging with Strait of Hormuz "100% shut down" yet BTC holding $78K and SPY up 1.3%. Cross-asset dislocation widening between energy weakness and tech strength.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 48.1/100 (Low) Regime: OVERHEATING — inflation expectations rising amid financial conditions loosening Key prices: SPY +1.3%, QQQ +1.9%, VIX +0.6%, TLT -0.1%, DXY +0.1%, OIL -3.0% ICSA: 189K (trending down, -2.2σ below trend)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Energy Shock Contagion SPY: $650-680 (-5% to -10%) BTC: $70-74K (-6% to -10%) OIL: $110-125 (+8% to +23%) SCENARIO B — Geopolitical Fade Rally SPY: $740-770 (+3% to +7%) BTC: $85-92K (+9% to +18%) OIL: $85-95 (-17% to -7%) SCENARIO C — Stagflation Transition TLT: $75-80 (-12% to -7%) GLD: $450-480 (+6% to +13%) DXY: $103-108 (+5% to +10%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Uranium (URA +5.6%) — bid 2. Semiconductors (SMH +2.1%) — strong 3. Utilities (XLU +1.9%) — rotating 4. Industrials (XLI +1.8%) — strong 5. Technology (XLK +1.7%) — bid

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

SLV +5.3% — ETF rotation into precious metals amid geopolitical premium EWY +5.2% — South Korea becoming 8th largest stock market, ETF inflows accelerating BRENT -4.5% — Trump "war will end, oil will come tumbling down" comments SOXX +3.5% — semiconductor strength on AI infrastructure pivot narrative TKMS +3.6% — defense contractor bid on escalating military tensions Energy selling on peace premium expectations while tech/defense absorb geopolitical hedge flows — regime uncertainty driving asset rotation.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: +$531M inflow (13th consecutive day) — institutional accumulation accelerating despite volatility Whale activity: ETH heavily shorted ($35M vs $10.8M long) while BTC balanced ($22.8M/$22.9M) — divergence suggests ETH vulnerability if crypto momentum fades

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in energy mean reversion vs crypto momentum if geopolitical premium normalizes. Consider hedging tech exposure with utilities given late-cycle positioning and rising inflation expectations creating defensive rotation setup. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — May 2, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $78,421 — 1d: BULL_REGIME | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • ETH: $2,307 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: IGNITION • SOL: $83.97 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: ACCUMULATION

WHALE ALERTS

• 300,000,000 USDT ($299,900,400) transferred from #Bitfinex to Tether Treasury • 3,690 BTC ($289,109,114) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet • 1,051 BTC ($82,372,919) transferred from #Binance to unknown wallet FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • LAB: 1004% net APR (0.2603% rate) Long MEXC / Short Bitget | OI: $11.5M | Spread: -1.25% • UB: 338% net APR (0.1142% rate) Long Bitget / Short OKX | OI: $5.6M | Spread: -0.32% • B: 147% net APR (0.1070% rate) Long Bitget / Short Bybit | OI: $10.3M | Spread: 0.18%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $15,877,451 | Longs: 58% | L/S: 1.4:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▲ Crypto Institutional Adoption Surge [BTC, ETH, RIOT] ▼ Fed Hawkish Persistence [DXY, TLT, SPY] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice