May 1, 2026 — The Record

03:15

RADAR

MACRO RADAR 03:15 UTC #

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · Gauge 33.8/100

OVERHEATING. F&G: —. NORMAL.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MACRO RADAR — May 1, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 33.8/100 • BTC:

$76,537

• ETH:

$2,266

• SOL:

$83.56

• GOLD:

$4,616

SPY: $718.66 (+1.0%) QQQ: $667.74 (+1.5%) VIX: 16.9 (-10.2%) TLT: $85.62 (-0.9%) DXY: 98.1 (-0.8%) OIL: $105.5 (-1.3%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.14T (YoY -3.03%) US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 286bps CALM (5d: 0bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 2Y Treasury: +2.80σ ▼ 10Y Treasury: +2.79σ ▼ 30Y Treasury: +2.33σ ▼ 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +2.19σ ▲ Jobless Claims: -2.17σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ NVDA: +8.5% ▲ SOL: +0.6%

TOP MOVERS

▼ VIX $16.89 (-10.2%) ▼ BRENT $112 (-5.4%) — ECB sees two rate hikes if Brent stays above $100 – Reuters ▲ SOXX $461 (+5.2%) ▲ MOH $195 (+4.9%) ▲ EWY $161 (+4.1%) ▲ KHYPE $41.04 (+2.7%) ▼ ZEC $345 (-2.6%) ▲ HYPE $40.35 (+2.6%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 0.5/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds — Oil: $100 (>$95) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

09:15

SIGNAL

SIGNAL SCAN 09:15 UTC #

SIGNAL SCAN — May 1, 2026

Risk 33.8/100 · 8 movers

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

SIGNAL SCAN — May 1, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on regime with overheating signals as tech and energy lead broad equity rally. Fed hawkishness supports dollar while crypto faces institutional selling pressure with $490M ETF outflows. Cross-asset divergence emerging between strong risk assets and defensive crypto positioning.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 33.8/100 (Low) Regime: OVERHEATING — inflation expectations rising while real yields fall SPY +0.98% | QQQ +1.55% | VIX +1.12% | TLT -0.87% | DXY -0.05% | OIL +1.03% ICSA: 189K (trending down, employment strength)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Tech Momentum Extension SPY: $740-760 (+3-6%) QQQ: $695-715 (+4-7%) VIX: $14-16 (-18-6%) SCENARIO B — Overheating Correction SPY: $680-700 (-5-3%) TLT: $88-92 (+3-7%) DXY: $100-102 (+2-4%) SCENARIO C — Crypto Capitulation BTC: $70-74K (-9-4%) ETH: $2050-2180 (-10-5%) SOL: $75-80 (-11-5%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Uranium (URA +4.04%) — strong 2. Energy (XLE +3.36%) — rotating 3. Semiconductors (SMH +3.16%) — bid 4. Industrials (XLI +2.11%) — rotating 5. Healthcare (XLV +1.49%) — defensive

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

BRENT $111.68 (-5.4%) — California gas hits $6, Iran conflict premium unwinding SOXX $461.44 (+5.2%) — tech sector ETF momentum as Nasdaq posts best month since 2020 MOH $194.62 (+4.9%) — healthcare defensive rotation amid macro uncertainty HYPE $40.35 (+2.6%) — DeFi infrastructure narrative gaining traction PENDLE $1.40 (+2.2%) — yield protocol benefiting from DeFi revival Energy volatility contrasts with persistent tech strength as markets reprice geopolitical premiums while chasing growth.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: +$531M inflow (13-day streak continues despite crypto whale shorting) Whale divergence: Large HYPE shorts ($33M) vs BTC longs ($36.3M) suggest rotation within crypto ETH institutional shorts ($47.5M) signal defensive positioning ahead of potential correction

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in long tech/short energy spread if geopolitical premium continues fading. Consider crypto exposure reduction given institutional outflow pressure despite ETF inflows. Healthcare offers defensive positioning while maintaining growth exposure through semis. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

15:15

PULSE

MARKET PULSE 15:15 UTC #

BTC ACCUMULATION on daily. 100 whale moves detected.

BTC 1d:Accumulation 4h:Ignition · ETH 1d:Accumulation 4h:Ignition · SOL 1d:Accumulation 4h:Ignition

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET PULSE — May 1, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $78,398 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: IGNITION • ETH: $2,309 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: IGNITION • SOL: $84.23 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: IGNITION

WHALE ALERTS

• 639 BTC ($50,251,425) transferred from #Robinhood to unknown wallet • 639 BTC ($50,077,064) transferred from unknown wallet to #Robinhood • 639 BTC ($50,077,064) transferred from unknown wallet to #Robinhood FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • B: 362% net APR (0.1304% rate) Long Bybit / Short Binance | OI: $7.2M | Spread: -0.27% • SKYAI: 327% net APR (0.1110% rate) Long Binance / Short Bitget | OI: $48.2M | Spread: -0.31% • UB: 211% net APR (0.0978% rate) Long OKX / Short Bybit | OI: $7.2M | Spread: -0.05%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $128,954,265 | Longs: 8% | L/S: 0.1:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↑ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↓ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ Crypto Market Stress [BTC, ETH, COIN] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

21:15

WRAP

MARKET WRAP 21:15 UTC #

Markets entered overheating territory as late-cycle dynamics intensified, with crypto infrastructure…

OVERHEATING. 18 news items. 6 scenario shifts.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET WRAP — May 1, 2026 Markets entered overheating territory as late-cycle dynamics intensified, with crypto infrastructure gains offset by mounting debt concerns and stagflationary pressures. Despite regulatory tailwinds for digital assets, the convergence of hegemonic shifts and displacement risks kept traditional safe havens bid while equity resilience showed cracks.

CLOSING PRICES

BTC: $77,831 · ETH: $2,284 · SOL: $83.44 · GOLD: $4,612 · SPY: $720.65 (+1.3%) · QQQ: $674.15 (+1.9%) · VIX: $16.99 (+0.6%) · TLT: $85.61 (-0.1%) · DXY: $98.21 (+0.1%) · OIL: $102.5 (-2.4%)

EVENING NEWS

▲ Bitcoin miner Riot's shares jump 8% after expanding AMD data center deal, signaling AI piv ▲ Bitcoin Holds $78K as ETF Inflows Return and Ethereum Outflows Persist ▲ CFTC to legalize crypto perpetuals in US, boosting regulatory clarity ▲ Stocks set to keep rallying despite Fed and oil concerns: SA analyst ▲ Civeo raises 2026 revenue guidance floor to $675M while keeping adjusted EBITDA at $85M-$9 ▼ Bitcoin drops as leverage liquidations drive structural downside

SCENARIO SHIFTS

▲ Late Cycle: Crypto AI pivot and equity resilience suggest continued expansion ▲ Recession: Energy inflation and debt concerns increase recessionary risks ▼ Goldilocks: Debt milestone and inflation pressures challenge benign scenario ▲ Stagflation: Debt-to-GDP breach and energy inflation support stagflationary thesis ▲ Hegemony: Fiscal constraints and crypto alternative narratives challenge dollar dominance ▲ Displacement: Crypto infrastructure evolution and regulatory clarity accelerate adoption

REGIME CHECK

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 33.8/100

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

US NAR seasonally adjusted existing home sales (AAMR)(Apr) — May 11, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: -3.6%) Consumer Price Index for Residents (YoY)(Apr) — May 11, 01:30 AM UTC (prev: 1.0%) US Trade Balance (billion USD)(Apr) — May 9, 12:30 PM UTC Trade Balance (billion USD)(Apr) — May 8, 04:05 PM UTC (prev: 51.13) US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary)(May) — May 8, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: 49.8) US Seasonally adjusted changes in non-agricultural employment population (thousands)(Apr) — May 8, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 178)

CONTRARIAN

• Crypto miner AI pivots may be late-cycle desperation moves rather than strategic positioning, sugges • Equity market resilience despite macro concerns could indicate dangerous complacency rather than fun agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

May 1, 2026 — The Record

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · Gauge 33.8/100

$76,537

$2,266

$83.56

$4,616

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

TOP MOVERS

NORMAL

SIGNAL SCAN — May 1, 2026

SNAPSHOT

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SECTOR STRENGTH

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

POSITIONING

IMPLICATION

BTC ACCUMULATION on daily. 100 whale moves detected.

CRYPTO

WHALE ALERTS

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

SCENARIO

INTEL

Markets entered overheating territory as late-cycle dynamics intensified, with crypto infrastructure…

CLOSING PRICES

EVENING NEWS

SCENARIO SHIFTS

REGIME CHECK

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

CONTRARIAN

72H TRACK RECORD

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