April 20, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Apr 20, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 0/100 • BTC:

$74,397

• ETH:

$2,278

• SOL:

$84.22

• GOLD:

$4,854

SPY: $710.14 (+1.5%) QQQ: $648.85 (+1.8%) VIX: 17.5 (-2.6%) TLT: $87.07 (+0.3%) DXY: 98.3 (+0.2%) OIL: $82.59 (-1.5%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.19T (YoY -2.9%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 286bps CALM (5d: -4bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +1.98σ ▼ Silver: +1.88σ ▲ WTREGEN: -1.81σ ▲ IG Credit Spread: -1.80σ ▼ 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +1.68σ

TOP MOVERS

▼ RSETH $2,016 (-18.9%) ▲ JST $0.07371 (+9.2%) ▲ CHZ $0.04312 (+6.6%) ▲ EWY $152 (+5.1%) ▲ TKMS $89.60 (+4.7%) ▲ SOXX $416 (+3.4%) ▲ WPP $271 (+3.1%) ▲ KWEB $30.45 (+2.7%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 0.5/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds — Oil: $101 (>$95) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — April 20, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Mixed risk regime as equities rally despite Persian Gulf shipping crisis. Tech leadership emerges while energy underperforms paradoxically. Crypto divergence suggests institutional flows overriding geopolitical risk.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 0.0/100 (Calm) Regime: OVERHEATING — liquidity expanding +3.4 despite financial conditions tightening SPY +1.5% | QQQ +1.8% | VIX flat 17.48 | TLT +0.3% | DXY +0.2% | OIL flat 82.59 ICSA: 207K (trend UP, below normal)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Hormuz Escalation BTC: $67-70K (-7% to -11%) SPY: $675-690 (-5% to -3%) OIL: $95-105 (+15% to +27%) SCENARIO B — Tech Momentum QQQ: $680-720 (+5% to +11%) BTC: $78-82K (+4% to +9%) TLT: $85-87 (-2% to flat) SCENARIO C — BOJ Pivot SPY: $690-700 (-3% to -1%) DXY: $101-104 (+3% to +6%) GOLD: $435-450 (-2% to +1%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Technology (XLK +2.7%) — strong 2. Real Estate (XLRE +2.5%) — rotating 3. Semiconductors (SMH +2.5%) — bid 4. Consumer Disc (XLY +1.9%) — strong 5. Energy (XLE -1.3%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

HYPE $40.97 (-5.5%) — Ethereum thesis weakening as Solana dominates retail, Hyperliquid captures perps flow EWY $152.33 (+5.1%) — South Korea benefiting from tech rotation SOXX $415.71 (+3.4%) — Semiconductor strength on AI demand PENDLE $1.27 (-5.2%) — DeFi yield protocol caught in ETH weakness XLK $154.35 (+2.7%) — Tech leadership despite geopolitical backdrop Risk assets ignoring energy disruption signals liquidity-driven rally trumping fundamentals.

POSITIONING

BTC whales: 52.7M long vs 11.6M short, -$880K PnL suggests recent pain ETH whales: 33.9M long vs 12.2M short, +$419K PnL on positioning HYPE: 29.1M short exposure, +$456K gains on decline BTC ETFs: +$531M net inflows, 13-day streak — institutional demand persists through volatility

IMPLICATION

Divergence between geopolitical risk and asset performance suggests late-cycle liquidity dominance. Tactical opportunity in tech vs energy spread if Persian Gulf tensions fade, but hedge via oil exposure given supply risk. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Apr 20, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $74,980 — 1d: BULL_REGIME | 4h: BEAR_REGIME • ETH: $2,290 — 1d: BULL_REGIME | 4h: BEAR_REGIME • SOL: $84.81 — 1d: BULL_REGIME | 4h: BEAR_REGIME

WHALE ALERTS

• 199,860,097 USDT ($199,940,041) transferred from unknown wallet to #Ethena • 200,500,000 USDT ($200,558,144) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet • 222,000,000 USDT ($222,097,680) transferred from Tether Treasury to unknown wallet FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • SKYAI: 932% net APR (0.4123% rate) Long Binance / Short Bitget | OI: $20.8M | Spread: -0.16% • RAVE: 653% net APR (0.0875% rate) Long Bitget / Short OKX | OI: $8.1M | Spread: 0.23% • PIEVERSE: 245% net APR (0.2502% rate) Long Bybit / Short Bitget | OI: $8.7M | Spread: 0.77%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $131,957,518 | Longs: 71% | L/S: 2.4:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

— Bitcoin Testing Critical Support [BTC, MSTR, COIN] ▲ Cryptocurrency Ecosystem Expansion [XRP, SHIB, USDT] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice