Monday, April 13, 2026

MACRO RADAR — Apr 13, 2026

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 0/100

• BTC: $71,032
• ETH: $2,193
• SOL: $81.86
• GOLD: $4,760
SPY: $679.46 (+0.5%)
QQQ: $611.07 (+0.8%)
VIX: 19.2 (-1.3%)
TLT: $86.49 (-0.5%)
DXY: 99.0 (+0.4%)
OIL: $104.97 (+8.7%)


LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.98%)
US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%)
▲ HY Credit Spreads: 290bps CALM (5d: -27bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES
▲ HY Credit Spread: -2.27σ
▼ WTI Crude Oil: +2.24σ
▲ WTREGEN: -2.19σ
▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +2.00σ
▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.60σ

TOP MOVERS
▲ WTI $105 (+8.7%)
▲ OIL $105 (+8.7%) — Bitcoin dips to $70.6K, oil rises after US announces Hormuz
▲ BRENT $102 (+7.4%)
▼ TKMS $82.90 (-7.1%)
▼ CHZ $0.03612 (-5.1%)
▼ SKY $0.07246 (-4.7%)
▲ EWZ $41.33 (+4.5%)
▼ DASH $41.45 (-4.5%)

HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 1/6 — NORMAL
If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds
▼ Oil: $114 (>$110)

agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — April 13, 2026

SNAPSHOT
Risk-off sentiment dominates as failed US-Iran nuclear talks trigger oil shock and Hormuz blockade fears. VIX spikes 11% while energy surges 8%, creating stagflationary crosscurrents. Crypto shows resilience with massive institutional flows despite geopolitical stress.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD
Risk Gauge: 0.0/100 (Calm)
Regime: OVERHEATING — liquidity expansion drives risk assets despite geopolitical tensions
Key prices: SPY +0.5% | QQQ +0.8% | VIX +10.9% | TLT -0.5% | DXY +0.3% | OIL +7.9%
ICSA: 219K (flat trend, z-score 0.86)

FORWARD SCENARIOS
SCENARIO A — Hormuz Escalation
SPY: $610-640 (-10 to -6%)
OIL: $115-125 (+10 to +20%)

SCENARIO B — Diplomatic Resolution
BTC: $75-80K (+6 to +13%)
VIX: $16-19 (-25 to -11%)

SCENARIO C — Stagflation Reset
TLT: $82-85 (-5 to -2%)
GLD: $460-480 (+5 to +10%)

SECTOR STRENGTH
1. Semiconductors (SMH +3.3%) — strong
2. Consumer Disc (XLY +1.9%) — rotating
3. Copper Miners (COPX +1.8%) — bid
4. Energy (XLE -1.9%) — dump
5. Healthcare (XLV -1.6%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS
VIX 21.33 (+10.9%) — Fear gauge signals calm ahead of inflation data despite geopolitical stress
WTI 104.99 (+8.7%) — US announces Hormuz blockade following failed Iran talks
AAVE 92.82 (+3.0%) — Chaos Labs stepping down as risk manager after 3-year tenure
TKMS 82.90 (-7.1%) — Defense contractor selloff despite Middle East tensions
ADA 0.24 (-3.0%) — Adam Back denial of Satoshi claims weighs on crypto sentiment
Cross-asset dislocation emerges as energy reprices war risk while equities ignore geopolitical premium

POSITIONING
BTC ETF flows: +$531.0M (13-day streak) — institutional demand remains robust
Whale activity: BTC shorts dominate ($23.8M vs $7.4M longs), ETH positioning mixed
HYPE seeing concentrated shorting (-$1.2M PnL) as ETF filings create volatility

IMPLICATION
Tactical opportunity in energy-crypto pair trade if geopolitical premium fades. VIX disconnect from oil surge suggests equity complacency vulnerable to energy shock transmission through inflation expectations.

agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice