March 18, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 18, 2026 🔴 Risk-Off · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 93.5/100 • BTC:

$74,494

• ETH:

$2,342

• SOL:

$95.09

• GOLD:

$5,000

SPY: $670.79 (+1.3%) QQQ: $603.31 (+1.6%) VIX: 22.4 (-4.8%) TLT: $87.45 (+1.1%) DXY: 99.6 (+0.0%) OIL: $92.44 (-3.9%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

🔴 Global CB Liquidity: $17.99T (YoY -3.39%) US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%) HY Credit Spreads: 327bps CALM (5d: +8bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

🔴 WTI Crude Oil: +2.80σ 🔴 IG Credit Spread: +2.22σ 🔴 DTWEXBGS: +2.21σ 🔴 HY Credit Spread: +1.84σ 🔴 Fed Balance Sheet: +1.69σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

🔴 NVDA: -1.3%

TOP MOVERS

EWY $134 (+8.3%) 🔴 VIX $22.37 (-4.8%) 🔴 OIL $92.44 (-3.9%) — China: Fiscal support seen offsetting Oil shock – TD Securit 🔴 MOH $144 (-3.5%) EWZ $36.71 (+3.4%) 🔴 FET $0.2355 (-2.5%) 🔴 PENDLE $1.33 (-2.2%) ATOM $2.00 (+2.0%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds 🔴 USD Index: 120.5518 (>110) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 18, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on equities rally amid cross-asset dislocation as stagflation signals flash warning. Tech leads charge (+2%) while VIX collapses -3.3%, contradicting elevated risk gauge at 93.5. Asian exposure surges on geopolitical positioning despite Hormuz tensions.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 93.5/100 (Critical) Regime: STAGFLATION — Financial conditions tightening amid USD strength and HY spread widening SPY: +1.28% | QQQ: +1.62% | VIX: -3.26% | TLT: +1.05% | DXY: -0.09% | OIL: -2.00% ICSA: 213K (flat trend)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Fed Pivot Relief SPY: $690-710 (+3-6%) BTC: $78K-82K (+5-10%) VIX: $18-20 (-15-17%) SCENARIO B — Stagflation Acceleration TLT: $82-85 (-6-9%) OIL: $105-115 (+11-22%) DXY: $102-105 (+3-5%) SCENARIO C — Geopolitical Escalation GLD: $480-500 (+5-9%) OIL: $110-125 (+17-33%) SPY: $620-640 (-5-8%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Uranium (URA +2.5%) — strong 2. Semiconductors (SMH +2.47%) — bid 3. Consumer Disc (XLY +2.09%) — rotating 4. Technology (XLK +2.0%) — strong 5. Copper Miners (COPX +1.99%) — bid

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

EWY +8.3% — South Korea's $350B U.S. investment pledge amid tariff concerns MOH -3.5% — Healthcare sector underperformance amid regulatory pressure EWZ +3.4% — Latin America exposure gains on commodity strength FET -2.5% — AI token selloff despite World/Coinbase AgentKit launch ILF +3.3% — LatAm infrastructure play on resource demand Cross-asset divergence widening as equities ignore stagflation signals while commodities reprice geopolitical risk.

POSITIONING

BTC whale longs $92.5M vs $42.9M shorts, +$3.2M PnL with 6-day ETF inflow streak at +$765M. Institutional crypto accumulation continues despite macro headwinds. HYPE single $29M long position signals alt speculation returning.

IMPLICATION

Tactical long crypto/tech vs energy beta if Hormuz premium fades, but stagflation regime suggests positioning for yield curve steepening. Cross-asset dislocation creates hedging opportunities — consider equity upside with commodity/rates protection. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 18, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $71,247 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF • ETH: $2,179 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF • SOL: $89.01 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF

WHALE ALERTS

• 1,182 BTC ($84,370,712) transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional • 1,096 BTC ($78,534,445) transferred from #Coinbase to unknown wallet • 70,000,000 USDT ($69,996,675) burned at #Binance FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • BARD: 4077% net APR (0.5000% rate) Long OKX / Short Bybit | OI: $6.3M | Spread: 0.77% • PIPPIN: 1395% net APR (0.1217% rate) Long MEXC / Short Bybit | OI: $5.9M | Spread: -0.94% • SIREN: 656% net APR (0.4347% rate) Long Bybit / Short MEXC | OI: $8.4M | Spread: 0.77%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $125,051,409 | Longs: 92% | L/S: 11.5:1 agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice