Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
MACRO RADAR · June 5, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 39.0/100 · Composite 35.2
Risk Gauge: 39.0/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 35.2/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 38/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 39.0/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 35.2/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 38/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.07T (YoY -2.88%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 275bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 20)
- BTC
- $64,273
- ETH
- $1,806
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $64,273 · ETH: $1,806 · SOL: $71.35 Crypto sentiment: 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 20) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.07T (YoY -2.88%) — fed $6.70T · ecb $7.20T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 275bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.54 (+10.6% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.3% | QQQ -0.7% | VIX -4.1% | TLT -0.2% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -2.6%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ ABSI: +21.5% ▲ IOVA: +17.1% ▼ NEAR/USD: -16.9% ▲ LPTH: +16.7% ▲ ABCL: +13.7% ▲ UMAC: +13.4%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.88 (R), Gold $4446 (Y), Oil $96 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.14σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.59σ
US Open Setup
Setup favors overnight positioning in defensive healthcare sectors given the risk-off tone. Watch for crypto stabilization levels and whether commodity weakness spills into broader cyclicals at US open.