Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
MACRO RADAR · June 3, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 35.1/100 · Composite 34.6
Risk Gauge: 35.1/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 34.6/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 36/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 35.1/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 34.6/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 36/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.07T (YoY -2.83%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 272bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 11 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 23)
- BTC
- $70,844
- ETH
- $2,001
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $70,844 · ETH: $2,001 · SOL: $80.83 Crypto sentiment: 11 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 23) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.07T (YoY -2.83%) — fed $6.70T · ecb $7.20T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 272bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.75 (+12.3% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.4% | QQQ +1.1% | VIX -1.7% | TLT -0.1% | DXY flat | OIL +2.8%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ COHR: +16.4% ▲ LWLG: +16.0% ▼ SOXS: -14.1% ▲ SOXL: +13.9% ▲ GLW: +13.4% ▲ LITE: +13.2%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.88 (R), Gold $4481 (Y), Oil $98 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] VIX: -2.33σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.59σ
US Open Setup
Watch for continuation of cyclical rotation into US open with semiconductors and metals leading. Crypto weakness may pressure broader risk sentiment if outflows persist.