Risk-on regime with tech leading the charge and defensive rotation underway.

Risk-on regime with tech leading the charge and defensive rotation underway. Crypto flows remain pressured despite selective strength in privacy coins, while industrial metals catch a bid on supply concerns. BTC at $73,681, below $75K. Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 26) (falling). Equity sentiment (CNN F&G): 60.2 (Greed), 7d avg 59, 30d avg 66.2. BTC ETF flows: -$125M outflow on May 29 (Fri close), after -$1.5B outflow trailing 5-trading-day.

Top sectors: XLK +3.6%, COPX +2.4%, ITA +2.1%, XLU -1.6%, XLP -2.0%. 1. Technology (XLK +3.6%) — strong 2. Copper Miners (COPX +2.4%) — bid 3. Defense (ITA +2.1%) — rotating 4. Utilities (XLU -1.6%) — weak 5. Consumer Staples (XLP -2.0%) — dump

Weekend — markets closed; tradfi reflects Fri close, crypto live. Risk Gauge: 51.4/100 (Elevated). Phase: EXPANSION. SPY +0.8% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.3% Composite Risk: 34.7/100 (MODERATE). CAPE: 42.7 (BUBBLE_TERRITORY, 99th %ile, +149% vs mean). Geopolitical risk: 40/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 51/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).

ICSA: 215K (DOWN trend, +0.41z) Business cycle: LEI 99.85 (STABLE), claims ↑215K, 2s10s +0.46. Fed implied: -1.5 cuts (HIKES_PRICED); 10Y breakeven 2.39% (NORMAL).

(33%) — Tech Rally Extension SPY: $776.93-790.57 (+3-5%) QQQ: $771.58-791.54 (+5-7%) BTC: $77,001-80,321 (+5-9%)

(33%) — Crypto Decoupling BTC: $78,993-83,641 (+7-14%) TLT: $83.44-84.99 (-3 to -1%) QQQ: $718.35-731.66 (-3 to -1%)

(34%) — Risk-off Rotation TLT: $88.08-89.62 (+3-5%) DXY: 99.83-101.62 (+1-3%) SPY: $736.03-742.85 (-3 to -2%)

↓ BTC: 0.501 (Δ -0.011, MIXED) ↑ Treasury / Duration: 0.525 (Δ +0.006, EARLY) ↑ Credit Stress: 0.558 (Δ +0.006, MIXED)

Top movers: XMR +11.2%, NEAR -4.4%, APT +4.2%, EWY +3.8%, TKMS +3.8%, XLK +3.6%. XMR $412.95 (+11.2%) — Privacy coin strength amid regulatory uncertainty driving institutional positioning shift NEAR $2.39 (-4.4%) — Weakness despite broader layer-one positioning flows, lagging ethereum momentum APT $0.97 (+4.2%) — Layer-one rotation catching momentum from developer activity and ecosystem growth EWY $205.83 (+3.8%) — South Korean equities bid on semiconductor export optimism and won stability TKMS $84.30 (+3.8%) — Flow-driven move, no specific catalyst, positioning-led XLK $191.02 (+3.6%) — Technology sector leadership on AI infrastructure spending and earnings optimism Growth assets leading with tech at the forefront while defensive sectors face rotation pressure

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): -$125M outflow on May 29 (Fri close) (IBIT -$68M, FBTC -$32M, BTC -$10M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.5B outflow. Copper #1 (COMEX): +72.0K net, Δ -3.0K (REDUCING_LONGS) Gold (COMEX): +96.9K net, Δ +2.5K (ADDING_LONGS)

▲ US-China Relations and Iran Deal Reshaping Geopolitics [GLD, USO, SPY, TLT] ▼ Crypto Institutional Outflows Despite Infrastructure Progress [BTC, ETH, COIN] ▲ Defense and Space Technology Surge [LMT, RTX, NOC] Congress (last 3 pages): 28 buys / 8 sells [R:28B/8S]. Top: GOOGL(2), AAPL(2), T(2), HD(2).

Tech leadership alongside industrial metals strength suggests growth rotation intact despite crypto headwinds. Defensive weakness confirms risk-on positioning. Watch for follow-through in semiconductor names and copper exposure as key confirmation signals. Privacy coin divergence worth monitoring for crypto sector leadership shifts.