Risk-on regime persists with tech and semiconductors leading while volatility contracts.

Risk-on regime persists with tech and semiconductors leading while volatility contracts. Crypto flows divergent against broader equity momentum as defensive sectors lag. BTC at $81,240, above $80K. Crypto sentiment: 43 (Fear, 7d avg 43). Equity sentiment (CNN F&G): 66.1 (Greed), 7d avg 66.4, 30d avg 47.3. BTC ETF flows: +$131M inflow on May 15 (Fri close), after -$1.0B outflow trailing 5-trading-day.

Top sectors: SMH +3.0%, XLK +2.5%, XLC +1.1%, COPX -1.5%, URA -3.4%. 1. Semiconductors (SMH +3.0%) — strong 2. Technology (XLK +2.5%) — bid 3. Comm Services (XLC +1.1%) — rotating 4. Copper Miners (COPX -1.5%) — weak 5. Uranium (URA -3.4%) — dump

Pre-market — tradfi reflects Thu close, crypto live. Risk Gauge: 36.1/100 (Low). Regime: OVERHEATING. SPY +1.4% | QQQ +1.8% | VIX -3.4% | TLT -0.1% | DXY +0.5% | OIL +1.3% Composite Risk: 29.4/100 (MODERATE). CAPE: 42.2 (BUBBLE_TERRITORY, 99th %ile, +147% vs mean). Geopolitical risk: 47/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).

ICSA: 211K (FLAT trend, +0.04z) Business cycle: LEI 99.85 (STABLE), claims ↑211K, 2s10s +0.48. Fed implied: -1.4 cuts (HIKES_PRICED); 10Y breakeven 2.47% (NORMAL).

— Tech Rally Extension SPY: $770.96-786.15 (+3-5%) QQQ: $756.33-778.25 (+5-8%) BTC: $85,364-89,488 (+5-10%)

— Crypto Decoupling Peaks BTC: $87,839-93,612 (+8-15%) TLT: $82.33-84.06 (-3 to -1%) QQQ: $697.87-712.48 (-3 to -1%)

— Risk-off Rotation TLT: $87.51-89.23 (+3-5%) DXY: 100.02-102.03 (+1-3%) SPY: $725.38-732.98 (-3 to -2%)

↑ EU Defense★: 0.579 (Δ +0.043, CORE) ↑ Crypto: 0.485 (Δ +0.041, CORE) ↑ BTC: 0.491 (Δ +0.031, CORE)

Top movers: EWY +6.7%, HYPE +5.5%, PENDLE +4.0%, SLV -3.9%, VIX -3.4%, SMH +3.0%. EWY $190.52 (+6.7%) — South Korea equity momentum on regional rotation themes HYPE $46.74 (+5.5%) — Coinbase and Circle expanding USDC integration catalyst PENDLE $2.07 (+4.0%) — Yield protocol momentum in broader DeFi rotation SLV $75.51 (-3.9%) — Precious metals weakness on risk-on rotation VIX 17.26 (-3.4%) — Volatility compression as equity momentum sustains SMH $578.34 (+3.0%) — Semiconductor strength driving tech outperformance Tech leading broader risk-on extension while metals rotate out

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): +$131M inflow on May 15 (Fri close) (IBIT +$144M, GBTC -$32M, BITB +$18M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.0B outflow. BTC options — BEARISH: max pain $80,000 (15MAY26), P/C 0.67 OI / 0.75 vol, put skew +16.4 IV. Perp funding (8h, cross-exchange mean): BTC -0.2037% (5/21 positive, short-biased). Whale positioning (Hyperliquid, top 3 by notional): BTC: $90M long / $37M short (net long $53M, +$2.4M PnL); ETH: $42M long / $50M short (net short $8M, +$711K PnL); HYPE: $20M long / $43M short (net short $23M, -$2.7M PnL). Gold (COMEX): +95.7K net, Δ +4.1K (ADDING_LONGS) Copper #1 (COMEX): +63.1K net, Δ +2.3K (ADDING_LONGS)

▼ Fed Hawkish Pivot on Hot Inflation [DXY, TLT, GOLD, COPPER] ▲ Crypto Regulatory Breakthrough [BTC, SOL, HYPE, COIN] ▼ Dollar Strength Crushing Commodities [GOLD, COPPER, DJP] Congress (last 3 pages): 27 buys / 9 sells [R:7B/5S, D:20B/4S]. Top: INTU(3), CMG(2), LLY(2), MRVL(2).

Tech momentum remains the primary equity driver with semiconductors at the spear tip. Crypto flows show mixed signals despite ETF inflows. Watch for rotation sustainability as defensive sectors remain under pressure. VIX compression suggests complacency building. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice