May 13, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — May 13, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · EXPANSION · Gauge: 39.5/100 • BTC:

$81,042

• ETH:

$2,294

• SOL:

$95.18

• GOLD:

$4,714

SPY: $738.18 (+0.1%) QQQ: $707.24 (-0.6%) VIX: 18.0 (-2.1%) TLT: $84.99 (-1.3%) DXY: 98.3 (+0.4%) OIL: $101.19 (+3.2%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.23T (YoY -3.04%) US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 279bps CALM (5d: +1bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ Silver: +2.31σ ▲ 2s10s Curve: -1.84σ ▼ 2Y Treasury: +1.51σ — WTI Crude Oil: +1.43σ — Fed Balance Sheet: +1.42σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ NVDA: +19.6% ▲ SOL: +0.5%

TOP MOVERS

▲ INJ $5.14 (+8.4%) ▲ SLV $78.55 (+7.6%) ▼ B $0.5924 (-7.1%) ▲ ZEC $588 (+6.7%) ▼ EWY $179 (-6.2%) ▼ WPP $260 (-5.6%) ▼ TKMS $74.40 (-5.5%) ▲ XLE $57.57 (+3.4%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 0.5/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds — Oil: $110 (>$95) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — May 13, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Metals and energy leading a selective risk-on session while discretionary lags, suggesting rotation into commodity plays rather than broad growth momentum. Cross-asset flows show mixed conviction with crypto experiencing notable outflows despite select altcoin strength. BTC at $81,042, above $80K. Crypto sentiment: 42 (Fear, 7d avg 44). BTC ETF flows (last update Fri May 8 — no fresh data since): -$151M outflow.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Pre-market — tradfi reflects Tue close, crypto live. Risk Gauge: 39.5/100 (Low). Regime: EXPANSION. SPY +0.1% | QQQ -0.6% | VIX -2.1% | TLT -1.3% | DXY +0.4% | OIL +3.3% ICSA: 200K (DOWN trend, -1.06z)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Commodity Rally Extension SPY: $761.62-777.24 (+3-5%) QQQ: $744.66-767.11 (+5-8%) BTC: $85,330-89,618 (+5-11%) SCENARIO B — Crypto Selective Rotation BTC: $87,903-93,906 (+8-16%) TLT: $82.29-84.09 (-3 to -1%) QQQ: $684.79-699.76 (-3 to -1%) SCENARIO C — Defensive Sector Bid TLT: $87.69-89.49 (+3-5%) DXY: $99.34-101.42 (+1-3%) SPY: $714.74-722.56 (-3 to -2%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

Top sectors: COPX +5.6%, XLE +3.4%, XLV +1.6%, URA -1.5%, XLY -1.6%. 1. Copper Miners (COPX +5.6%) — strong 2. Energy (XLE +3.4%) — bid 3. Healthcare (XLV +1.6%) — rotating 4. Uranium (URA -1.5%) — weak 5. Consumer Disc (XLY -1.6%) — dump

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

Top movers: INJ +8.4%, SLV +7.6%, EWY -6.2%, WPP -5.6%, TKMS -5.5%, PENDLE +4.9%. INJ $5.14 (+8.4%) — protocol upgrade momentum driving DeFi positioning flows SLV $78.55 (+7.6%) — precious metals bid on industrial demand outlook EWY $178.50 (-6.2%) — Korea equity weakness on regional growth concerns WPP $259.50 (-5.6%) — advertising spend outlook pressuring marketing services TKMS $74.40 (-5.5%) — defense contractor rotation out of momentum names PENDLE $2.13 (+4.9%) — yield farming narrative driving DeFi protocol flows Commodity strength and crypto selectivity highlight rotation away from traditional growth into yield-focused plays

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported) (last update Fri May 8 — no fresh data since): -$151M outflow (FBTC -$98M, IBIT -$27M, ARKB -$27M). $96B AUM across 10 funds. BTC options — BEARISH: max pain $79,000 (15MAY26), P/C 0.64 OI / 0.62 vol, put skew +20.5 IV. Perp funding (8h, cross-exchange mean): BTC -0.1083% (10/21 positive). Whale positioning (Hyperliquid, top 3 by notional): BTC: $21M long / $83M short (net short $62M, +$736K PnL); ETH: $14M long / $75M short (net short $61M, +$3.4M PnL); HYPE: $10M long / $26M short (net short $16M, +$633K PnL).

IMPLICATION

This commodity-led rotation with defensive healthcare participation suggests positioning for late-cycle dynamics rather than growth acceleration. Watch energy and metals momentum for sustainability while fading discretionary weakness on oversold bounces. Crypto outflows amid selective altcoin strength indicates institution rotation, not broad digital asset capitulation. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — May 13, 2026

CRYPTO

BTC: $81,042 — 1d:BEAR_REGIME · 4h:ACCUMULATION · above $80K ETH: $2,294 — 1d:BEAR_REGIME · 4h:ACCUMULATION SOL: $95.18 — 1d:DISTRIBUTION · 4h:ACCUMULATION Crypto sentiment: 42 (Fear, 7d avg 44).

WHALE ALERTS

• 3,954 BTC ($302.2M) — transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional • 3,802 BTC ($288.7M) — transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional • 3,615 BTC ($281.7M) — transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, |spread|<1%) • SKYAI: 101% net APR (0.0462% rate) · Long Binance / Short Bitget · OI $61.3M · Spread -0.19%

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported) (last update Fri May 8 — no fresh data since): -$151M outflow (FBTC -$98M, IBIT -$27M, ARKB -$27M). $96B AUM across 10 funds. BTC options — BEARISH: max pain $79,000 (15MAY26), P/C 0.64 OI / 0.62 vol, put skew +20.5 IV. Perp funding (8h, cross-exchange mean): BTC -0.1083% (10/21 positive). Whale positioning (Hyperliquid, top 3 by notional): BTC: $21M long / $83M short (net short $62M, +$736K PnL); ETH: $14M long / $75M short (net short $61M, +$3.4M PnL); HYPE: $10M long / $26M short (net short $16M, +$633K PnL). Liquidations: 24h total $58.9M; latest 4h $6.3M long-dominant (631 events).

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ Central Bank Tightening Acceleration [JPY, JGB, TOPIX, USDJPY] ▲ Crypto Institutional Adoption Wave [BTC, XRP, MSTR, COIN] ▼ Supply Chain Energy Disruption [CRUDE, DIESEL, INR, SENSEX]

IMPLICATION

Commodity strength suggests inflation hedge positioning while discretionary weakness signals growth concerns. Watch for continuation of this rotation or reversal if risk appetite returns. Energy and metals offer tactical upside, but monitor consumer discretionary for oversold bounce opportunities in a growth recovery scenario. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice