Risk-on regime with selective rotation into semis and utilities while energy deflates.

Risk-on regime with selective rotation into semis and utilities while energy deflates. Tech earnings momentum driving growth leadership despite Middle East tensions. Cross-asset divergence as crypto rallies +23% while oil dumps -5% on Iran blockade effectiveness.

Risk Gauge: 8.9/100 (Calm) Regime: OVERHEATING — financial conditions easing as inflation expectations rise with weakening dollar Key prices: SPY +0.4% | QQQ +1.3% | VIX -3.1% | TLT -0.03% | DXY -0.3% | OIL -1.5% ICSA: 214K (+0.34 z-score, trending up)

— Tech Earnings Extend SPY: $730-750 (+2-5%) QQQ: $680-710 (+2-7%) VIX: $15-17 (-15-20%)

— Energy Inflation Shock OIL: $105-115 (+11-22%) TLT: $82-85 (-5-6%) DXY: $101-104 (+3-5%)

— Iran Peace Premium BTC: $72K-78K (-7-0%) GOLD: $410-430 (-5-9%) VIX: $22-26 (+18-39%)

1. Semiconductors (SMH +6.2%) — breakout 2. Utilities (XLU +2.9%) — defensive 3. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.4%) — rotation 4. Technology (XLK +1.4%) — earnings 5. Defense (ITA -1.5%) — fade

MOH +15.0% — Q1 beat with Medicare Advantage exit strategy, UBS target raised to $180 SOXX +6.9% — tech earnings optimism driving semiconductor ETF breakout BRENT -5.0% — US naval blockade proving effective at containing Iran energy exports RTX -3.7% — defense rotation fading as conflict containment expectations rise Risk assets diverging from energy as geopolitical premium shifts from kinetic to economic warfare.

BTC ETF flows: +$531M inflow (13-day streak) signaling institutional crisis hedging adoption Whale activity: $57M long HYPE (+$3.6M PnL), $57M BTC longs vs $9M shorts, concentrated ETH positioning at $31M Cross-asset positioning suggests continued crypto accumulation during traditional risk-off periods

Tactical long tech/crypto vs energy as Iran blockade success reduces kinetic risk while maintaining economic pressure. Monitor TLT weakness — if real yields rise with growth, defensive rotation could reverse quickly. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice