April 9, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Apr 9, 2026 — Neutral · Neutral · EXPANSION · Gauge: 25.6/100 • BTC:

$71,074

• ETH:

$2,182

• SOL:

$82.13

• GOLD:

$4,730

SPY: $676.01 (+2.6%) QQQ: $606.09 (+3.0%) VIX: 25.8 (+0.0%) TLT: $86.92 (+0.3%) DXY: 99.0 (-0.6%) OIL: $97.16 (-14.0%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $17.92T (YoY -3.08%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 313bps CALM (5d: -29bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +2.54σ ▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +1.82σ ▼ WTI Crude Oil: +1.62σ — IG Credit Spread: -1.06σ — Jobless Claims: -1.04σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ VIX: +22.5% ▼ NVDA: -1.4% ▼ SOL: -1.3% ▼ ETH: -1.3%

TOP MOVERS

▼ WTI $97.03 (-14.1%) ▼ OIL $97.16 (-14.0%) — Fed Rate Cuts Shrink to One as Iran War Rattles Oil Markets ▼ BRENT $96.75 (-11.5%) ▲ EWY $140 (+11.2%) ▲ SOXX $370 (+7.6%) ▲ DEXE $8.08 (+3.9%) ▼ WLFI $0.09134 (-3.4%) ▼ PENGU $0.006360 (-3.4%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 0.5/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds — Oil: $105 (>$95) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — April 9, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on surge driven by US-Iran ceasefire optimism while central banks pivot hawkish on persistent inflation concerns. Massive oil short covering fuels broad rally, but whale positioning shows crypto institutional flows reversing. Cross-asset divergence as geopolitical premium compresses but rate cut expectations crater.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 25.6/100 (Low) Regime: EXPANSION — liquidity expanding but oil surge/rising real yields create cross-currents Key prices: SPY +2.6%, QQQ +3.0%, VIX +2.5%, TLT +0.3%, DXY flat, OIL +3.4% ICSA: 202K (down, trend improving)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Ceasefire Holds SPY: $690-720 (+2-6%) BTC: $74-78K (+4-9%) OIL: $85-92 (-13-6%) SCENARIO B — Fragile Truce Breaks SPY: $640-660 (-5-2%) BTC: $65-68K (-9-5%) OIL: $110-125 (+13-28%) SCENARIO C — Fed Hawkish Shock TLT: $82-85 (-6-2%) SPY: $650-675 (-4-0%) DXY: $102-105 (+3-6%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. COPPER (COPX +6.9%) — strong 2. SEMICONDUCTORS (SMH +6.8%) — rotating 3. URANIUM (URA +5.7%) — bid 4. TECHNOLOGY (XLK +3.6%) — strong 5. INDUSTRIALS (XLI +3.5%) — rotating

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

WTI -14.1% — temporary ceasefire deal triggers massive oil short covering reversal BRENT -11.5% — ceasefire announcement collapses war premium after 15%+ overnight drop EWY +11.2% — Korea benefits from regional stability, semiconductor demand surge SOXX +7.6% — chip rally on AI optimism, Meta unveils Muse Spark superintelligence model AAVE -2.8% — DeFi rotation as institutional flows favor spot crypto over protocols Ceasefire-driven short covering dominates while crypto institutions rotate from DeFi to spot exposure.

POSITIONING

BTC whale positioning: $51.2M long vs $139.6M short, net -$2.5M PnL suggests institutional caution BTC ETF outflows: -$212.3M, high significance institutional retreat despite price strength ETH whales net short $11.6M with +$1.5M PnL, positioning for relative weakness vs BTC

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in long risk assets vs energy if ceasefire holds, but position sizing critical given fragile geopolitical base. Central bank hawkishness caps upside—favor crypto momentum over duration trades as institutional flows stabilize. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Apr 9, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $71,189 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF • ETH: $2,178 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF • SOL: $82.15 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF

WHALE ALERTS

• 327,269,524 DOGE ($29,927,492) transferred from #Robinhood to unknown wallet • 65,000,000 USDT ($64,988,300) burned at #Binance • 252,525,046 USDT ($252,468,227) transferred from unknown wallet to #Okex FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • CL: 283% net APR (0.2442% rate) Long Bitget / Short Bybit | OI: $15.7M | Spread: 0.63% • BLUR: 317% net APR (0.0441% rate) Long Bybit / Short OKX | OI: $5.7M | Spread: 0.13% • LAB: 572% net APR (0.1427% rate) Long OKX / Short Bitget | OI: $5.8M | Spread: -0.79%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $30,408,485 | Longs: 56% | L/S: 1.3:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↑ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▲ Iran Ceasefire Drives Risk-On Rally [BTC, SPY, QQQ] ▲ Bitcoin Surge on Short Squeeze [BTC, ETH, XRP] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice