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MARKET WRAP · April 4, 2026 · 21:15 UTC

▲ Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and stocks after global shocks, Mercado Bitcoin finds…

MARKET WRAP · April 4, 2026, 21:15 UTC

▲ Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and stocks after global shocks, Mercado Bitcoin finds ▼ Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions ▼ Bitcoin Drops To Bottom Discovery Range For Fi…

Closing Prices

BTC:

$67,235

· ETH:

$2,063

· SOL:

$80.85

· GOLD:

$4,673

· SPY:

$655.83

(+0.8%) · QQQ:

$584.98

(+1.4%) · VIX:

$23.87

(+0.0%) · TLT:

$86.79

(+0.1%) · DXY:

$100.19

(+0.5%) · OIL:

$112.06

(+11.9%)

Evening News

▲ Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and stocks after global shocks, Mercado Bitcoin finds ▼ Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions ▼ Bitcoin Drops To Bottom Discovery Range For First Time In 4 Years In Sharp Selloff ▼ Iranian regime collapse odds drop to 13.5% after US aircraft losses ▼ Fed Rate Cut Bets Collapse as Jobs Data Shocks Markets; 10-year Treasury Yield Hits Critic ▲ HORMUZ TRACKER: Weekly Transits Reach Highest Since War Began

Scenario Shifts

▲ Late Cycle: Fed hold expectations and crypto retail exodus suggest cycle maturity ▼ Goldilocks: Geopolitical tensions and inflation fears disrupt balanced growth ▲ Stagflation: War-driven oil price risks with persistent employment strength ▲ Hegemony: US-Iran tensions test American military projection capabilities ▲ Displacement: Continued crypto institutional adoption despite market volatility

Regime Check

Risk-off · Neutral

· EXPANSION · Gauge: 47.3/100

Upcoming — High Impact

US Producer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 14, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 3.4%) Trade Balance (billion USD)(Mar) — Apr 13, 04:05 PM UTC (prev: 213.62) US NAR seasonally adjusted existing home sales (AAMR)(Mar) — Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: 1.7%) US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary)(Apr) — Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: 53.3) US Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 10, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.4%) US Core Consumer Price Index (Unseasonally Adjusted) (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 10, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.5%)

Contrarian

• Bitcoin's 'failed' safe haven narrative might actually signal maturation into a risk asset, making i • Strong employment data masking underlying weakness could make the Fed more dovish than markets expec agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice