March 24, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 24, 2026 🔴 Risk-Off · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 84.9/100 • BTC:

$70,523

• ETH:

$2,142

• SOL:

$90.3

• GOLD:

$4,404

SPY: $655.38 (-0.7%) QQQ: $588 (-0.8%) VIX: 26.1 (-2.4%) TLT: $86.39 (-1.3%) DXY: 99.4 (+0.4%) OIL: $91.83 (+4.2%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

🔴 Global CB Liquidity: $18.07T (YoY -3.32%) US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%) HY Credit Spreads: 324bps CALM (5d: -4bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

🔴 10Y Real Rate: +2.79σ Gold: -2.58σ 🔴 10Y Treasury: +2.25σ 🔴 2Y Treasury: +2.07σ 🔴 30Y Treasury: +2.04σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

🔴 NVDA: -4.6% 🔴 SOL: -1.5% 🔴 ETH: -0.8% 🔴 BTC: -0.5%

TOP MOVERS

🔴 TKMS $80.60 (-5.7%) 🔴 GLD $404 (-5.2%) 🔴 MOH $135 (-4.9%) 🔴 SLV $62.47 (-4.9%) OIL $91.83 (+4.2%) — Forex Today: US Dollar and Oil fall as Trump signals Iran de 🔴 MORPHO $1.66 (-3.5%) RENDER $1.74 (+3.0%) TON $1.34 (+2.3%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds 🔴 USD Index: 120.2757 (>110) 🟡 Gold: $4404 (<$4,600) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 24, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off stagflation regime with commodity surge overriding growth assets. Iran war premium driving energy +2.7% while precious metals crater -5% on real yield spike. Cross-asset dislocation as geopolitical risks reprice asymmetrically.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 84.9/100 (High) Regime: STAGFLATION — Real yields rising amid liquidity expansion creates growth/inflation tension Key prices: SPY -0.7%, QQQ -0.8%, VIX +0.5%, TLT -1.3%, DXY +0.4%, OIL +2.7% ICSA: 205K (trend UP, -0.64 z-score)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Iran Settlement Rally SPY: $680-$700 (+4-7%) Oil: $75-$82 (-15-9%) BTC: $75K-$78K (+5-9%) SCENARIO B — Stagflation Deepens TLT: $80-$83 (-7-4%) Oil: $95-$105 (+5-16%) Gold: $380-$400 (-6-1%) SCENARIO C — Growth Shock SPY: $590-$620 (-10-5%) VIX: $35-$45 (+33-71%) DXY: $102-$105 (+3-6%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. COPX (+1.6%) — strong 2. XLF (+0.6%) — rotating 3. XLE (+0.5%) — bid 4. XLU (-3.8%) — dump 5. XLRE (-3.1%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

GLD $404 (-5.2%) — Real yields spiking as stagflation shifts from inflation hedge to growth drag narrative WTI $92 (+4.1%) — Iran war premium persists despite Trump settlement signals TKMS €81 (-5.7%) — German defense contractor ROE concerns amid budget uncertainty MOH $135 (-4.9%) — Healthcare pressured by Iran Parliament speaker denying US negotiations TON $1.34 (+2.3%) — Telegram profitability milestone and successful bond refinancing Energy/precious metals divergence highlights regime uncertainty as markets price selective war premium while real rates destroy traditional hedges.

POSITIONING

Whale flow: BTC longs $67M vs $38M shorts (net bullish); ETH shorts $14M (bearish) BTC ETF: -$106M outflow (high significance) — institutional rotation continues Crypto positioning mixed: SOL longs $14M, HYPE shorts $14M suggest alt rotation

IMPLICATION

Tactical fade of precious metals weakness if Iran settlement materializes — real yield spike overdone relative to geopolitical resolution probability. Energy longs vulnerable to headline reversal but maintain structural bid until supply normalization. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 24, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $69,878 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: BEAR_REGIME • ETH: $2,137 — 1d: RISK_OFF | 4h: RISK_OFF • SOL: $89.75 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION

WHALE ALERTS

• 900 BTC ($63,115,624) transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional • 1,250,000 SOL ($114,246,056) transferred from to • 1,056 BTC ($75,078,640) transferred from #Kraken to unknown wallet FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • ONT: 4861% net APR (0.5958% rate) Long Bybit / Short Binance | OI: $8.4M | Spread: 0.92%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $45,162,598 | Longs: 60% | L/S: 1.5:1 agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice