March 10, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 10, 2026 🔴 Risk-Off · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 85/100 • BTC:

$69,549

• ETH:

$2,028

• SOL:

$85.64

• GOLD:

$5,137

SPY: $678.27 (-0.4%) QQQ: $607.76 (-0.2%) VIX: 25.5 (+7.4%) TLT: $89.23 (+0.5%) DXY: 98.9 (-0.2%) OIL: $90.43 (-4.6%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

[-] Global CB Liquidity: $18.19T (YoY -3.38%) US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%) [+] HY Credit Spreads: 313bps CALM (5d: +1bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

[-] VIX: +3.35σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: +3.02σ [-] DTWEXBGS: +1.96σ [-] HY Credit Spread: +1.90σ [-] 2Y Treasury: +1.78σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

[-] NVDA: -0.9% [+] BTC: +0.8%

TOP MOVERS

[+] VIX $25.50 (+7.4%) [+] EWY $134 (+6.5%) [+] SLV $78.26 (+5.4%) [-] WPP $258 (-5.2%) [+] MORPHO $2.04 (+4.6%) [-] OIL $90.43 (-4.6%) — China’s Yield Curve Hits Steepest in Four Years on Oil Jitte [-] SUI $0.9421 (-2.6%) [+] RENDER $1.43 (+2.1%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds [-] USD Index: 119.491 (>110) [~] 2Y Yield: 3.56% (<3.6%) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 10, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off regime with cross-asset divergences as oil shock meets institutional crypto flows. Stagflationary pressures building through China CPI surge and Iran geopolitical premium, yet BTC ETFs post 12-day streak signaling portfolio diversification demand. Classic late-cycle stress with alternative asset rotation.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 85.0/100 (High) Regime: STAGFLATION — Oil shock plus China inflation creating classic pricing pressures Key prices: SPY -0.4% | QQQ -0.2% | VIX +0.1% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.5% | OIL -7.9% ICSA: 213K (DOWN, z-score -0.08)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Geopolitical Fade BTC: $73K-78K (+8-12%) OIL: $75-82 (-10-15%) SPY: $695-715 (+2-5%) SCENARIO B — Stagflation Lock-In GOLD: $5400-5600 (+5-9%) TLT: $82-86 (-5-8%) BTC: $65K-68K (-5-8%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Biotech (XBI +2.6%) — strong 2. Uranium (URA +2.0%) — bid 3. Defense (ITA +0.8%) — rotating 4. Financials (XLF -1.8%) — weak 5. Consumer Disc (XLY -1.7%) — dump

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

OIL $87.32 (-7.9%) — China yield curve steepest in 4 years on oil supply jitters, Iran conflict premium fading EWY $133.89 (+6.5%) — South Korea stocks wild ride as investor demand returns after ugly rout SLV $78.26 (+5.4%) — Precious metals bid on stagflationary pressures and dollar weakness WTI $90.43 (-4.6%) — Crude sinks back below $100 as Middle East supply concerns ease MORPHO $2.04 (+4.6%) — DeFi protocol gaining on institutional crypto rotation Energy volatility whipsaw meets precious metals inflation hedge while crypto absorbs alternative allocation flows.

POSITIONING

BTC whales: $32M long vs $76M short, +$989K PnL across 6 positions (max 40x lev) ETH whales: $33M short bias, -$866K PnL (15x lev) BTC ETF flows: +$106.4M inflow, 12-day consecutive streak — institutional demand recovery signal

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in long crypto vs energy beta if geopolitical premium fades. Consider precious metals hedge against stagflationary lock-in, but watch for BTC portfolio diversification continuing through ETF channel regardless of macro regime. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 10, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $71,115 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: BULL_REGIME • ETH: $2,072 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: BULL_REGIME • SOL: $87.92 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: IGNITION

WHALE ALERTS

• 1,052 BTC ($74,643,629) transferred from #Coinbase to unknown wallet • 1,052 BTC ($74,836,282) transferred from Coinbase Institutional to unknown wallet • 250,000,000 USDC ($249,977,500) minted at USDC Treasury

FUNDING ARB

No quality arbs today (all below OI/spread filters)

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $134,780,227 | Longs: 23% | L/S: 0.3:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

[+] Bitcoin ETF Revival [BTC, ETH, COIN] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice